Post by Elliot Kane on Sept 26, 2009 2:54:16 GMT
How To Change The World
S/he who genuinely wishes to change the world must always remember one thing: you won't see the full effects in your lifetime. That might sound harsh, but it is nonetheless true. One cannot create vast social or technological upheaval, unite nations under a common banner or otherwise alter the way people live their entire lives in what is, in historical terms, a mere eyeblink. If you are not careful, you may even create a set of effects that is highly detrimental to all your ambitions and the change you send into the future may be one that horrify you, if only you knew.
Does any of that mean that the future cannot or should not be redirected? Not at all! Merely that we should keep an eye not just on the prize but on what humans are likely to do with it once they have it.
Did you know, for example, that dynamite was invented for use in mining and its poor inventor never dreamed men would ever use it on each other. It takes a particular kind of genius to be at once so clever that you create an entirely new means of blowing things up and so stupid that you think people won't use it to kill each other. Beware of such naeive assumptions. What others do with your creations still falls back ultimately on your shoulders.
With that in mind, it is time to begin...
The Art Of Generational Change
In childhood and young adulthood, we humans learn the things that most if not all of us will hold to be true and 'normal' for the whole of our lives. We learn such things as our own nationality, our religious position, our cultural and sociological taboos and the technology most prevalent in our culture at the time. In other words, we learn everything that is 'normal' and will remain 'normal' for the rest of our lives. No matter how much our world may change, our guiding star will always be the things we 'know' to be true and we will distrust or at the least be deeply suspicious of anything that is too great a change. It will feel unnatural and, if it goes against cultural taboos we have grown up with, we may even find ourselves resisting it for no reason other than that we are used to the status quo.
Anyone who truly wishes to change the world must therefore seek to convince not their peers, but rather the younger generations and, better yet, generations not yet born. A generation which grows up accepting your ideas as 'normal' may still reject them but at the very least they will not do so out of fear of the unknown.
Once you have achieved the level of 'status quo', the coming generations will simply accept your idea as 'the way things are' and you will get the full effect working for you, but until your idea reaches the level of 'common knowledge' it is an uphill struggle all the way.
All of this means two things: dissemination of the idea is important, but over-selling or trying to force it is unbelievably stupid. If enough people agree with you, it may even be tempting to impose your will upon the world to try to make it a 'better' place, but the perils there are both huge and obvious. You entrench resistance and make opposition into a thing that is handed down to the coming generations
Avoiding The Pendulum Effect
Moving too fast creates resistance and, over time, a backlash becomes inevitable that might wipe out all the things you hoped to accomplish and possibly even set you in a worse place than square one. This is usually known as The Pendulum Effect, and it can be most unforgiving for those who fall foul of it. It is why the creation of makeshift nations results in warfare, strife and mostly the eventual separation of the 'nation' into its more natural parts.
For a very recent example, look at Czechoslovakia. A country created entirely by fiat of the UN, it comprised two ethnically and culturally diverse peoples, the Czechs and the Slovaks, who viewed themselves as being two different peoples and, thus, two different nations. The instant they were out from under the heel of a leader who could compel them to remain together, what happens? they split apart. Because the main place where any nation has its true existence is in the minds and hearts of its people. And if those people do not see a nation where the borders are on the map, it is ultimately the map that must give way.
It is worth noting at this point that ethnicity, while a factor, is not so huge as some may imagine. Cultural and national identity is overwhelmingly more important. An Englishman who lives in Germany, for example, may always see himself as an Englishman first and thus will never in his heart become a German, despite the close ethnic ties between the two peoples. Conversely, the USA declared independence from Britain despite close cultural and ethnic ties because in their hearts the people living there had become American rather than British. Once peoples see themselves as being separate from each other, they become so.
But to return to the main subject at hand, the way to avoid The Pendulum Effect is simply to put the idea out there and allow people to decide for themselves. once the idea becomes common currency, it will be debated without the fear or entrenched resistance a diktat may evoke and people will make up their own minds. If your idea is a good one, consensus will slowly form and civil organisations may even campaign for its adoption. Usually this does take a vested interest to exist, it must be said, but where an idea is good enough the vested interest is inbuilt.
The best example here is surely the internet. It is simply an idea whose time has come. There is resistance from those who do not trust it or find it unfamiliar, but there is now a generation growing to whom the idea of NOT having it is unthinkable, because it has been a natural part of their lives from the very beginning. They know that yes, there are drawbacks, but there is none of the unease of unfamiliarity or the resistance to change that many of the 40-and-up generations feel towards it.
Some might argue at this point that surely Sir Tim has seen his invention reach fruition in his lifetime and thus that my thesis is wrong, but in truth he has not. The battle for control of the vast information source that is the web has barely begun, not least because almost every govt knows little of it or its capabilities. Right now, it looks like a useful toy but it is far more. The full flowering will simply not occur until most of the world's population is raised to accept it as normal and has the instincts and the knowledge to start using it in ways even Sir Tim may never have imagined. Indeed, I would argue that the internet age has barely taken its first toddling steps upon the world stage.
The Avalanche Effect
The best and most workable method for changing the world can thus be described in this fashion: in your lifetime, you will kick a pebble down a mountain. If you kick it right, you will see it start to move other pebbles and maybe some bigger stones. It'll build momentum. Over time, more stones move and ultimately, long after you are dead, the front of the mountain comes off and reveals a whole new mountain face underneath. If you've done it right, it's a more scenic view. If not, you just created massive problems. So be careful which pebble you kick!
S/he who genuinely wishes to change the world must always remember one thing: you won't see the full effects in your lifetime. That might sound harsh, but it is nonetheless true. One cannot create vast social or technological upheaval, unite nations under a common banner or otherwise alter the way people live their entire lives in what is, in historical terms, a mere eyeblink. If you are not careful, you may even create a set of effects that is highly detrimental to all your ambitions and the change you send into the future may be one that horrify you, if only you knew.
Does any of that mean that the future cannot or should not be redirected? Not at all! Merely that we should keep an eye not just on the prize but on what humans are likely to do with it once they have it.
Did you know, for example, that dynamite was invented for use in mining and its poor inventor never dreamed men would ever use it on each other. It takes a particular kind of genius to be at once so clever that you create an entirely new means of blowing things up and so stupid that you think people won't use it to kill each other. Beware of such naeive assumptions. What others do with your creations still falls back ultimately on your shoulders.
With that in mind, it is time to begin...
The Art Of Generational Change
In childhood and young adulthood, we humans learn the things that most if not all of us will hold to be true and 'normal' for the whole of our lives. We learn such things as our own nationality, our religious position, our cultural and sociological taboos and the technology most prevalent in our culture at the time. In other words, we learn everything that is 'normal' and will remain 'normal' for the rest of our lives. No matter how much our world may change, our guiding star will always be the things we 'know' to be true and we will distrust or at the least be deeply suspicious of anything that is too great a change. It will feel unnatural and, if it goes against cultural taboos we have grown up with, we may even find ourselves resisting it for no reason other than that we are used to the status quo.
Anyone who truly wishes to change the world must therefore seek to convince not their peers, but rather the younger generations and, better yet, generations not yet born. A generation which grows up accepting your ideas as 'normal' may still reject them but at the very least they will not do so out of fear of the unknown.
Once you have achieved the level of 'status quo', the coming generations will simply accept your idea as 'the way things are' and you will get the full effect working for you, but until your idea reaches the level of 'common knowledge' it is an uphill struggle all the way.
All of this means two things: dissemination of the idea is important, but over-selling or trying to force it is unbelievably stupid. If enough people agree with you, it may even be tempting to impose your will upon the world to try to make it a 'better' place, but the perils there are both huge and obvious. You entrench resistance and make opposition into a thing that is handed down to the coming generations
Avoiding The Pendulum Effect
Moving too fast creates resistance and, over time, a backlash becomes inevitable that might wipe out all the things you hoped to accomplish and possibly even set you in a worse place than square one. This is usually known as The Pendulum Effect, and it can be most unforgiving for those who fall foul of it. It is why the creation of makeshift nations results in warfare, strife and mostly the eventual separation of the 'nation' into its more natural parts.
For a very recent example, look at Czechoslovakia. A country created entirely by fiat of the UN, it comprised two ethnically and culturally diverse peoples, the Czechs and the Slovaks, who viewed themselves as being two different peoples and, thus, two different nations. The instant they were out from under the heel of a leader who could compel them to remain together, what happens? they split apart. Because the main place where any nation has its true existence is in the minds and hearts of its people. And if those people do not see a nation where the borders are on the map, it is ultimately the map that must give way.
It is worth noting at this point that ethnicity, while a factor, is not so huge as some may imagine. Cultural and national identity is overwhelmingly more important. An Englishman who lives in Germany, for example, may always see himself as an Englishman first and thus will never in his heart become a German, despite the close ethnic ties between the two peoples. Conversely, the USA declared independence from Britain despite close cultural and ethnic ties because in their hearts the people living there had become American rather than British. Once peoples see themselves as being separate from each other, they become so.
But to return to the main subject at hand, the way to avoid The Pendulum Effect is simply to put the idea out there and allow people to decide for themselves. once the idea becomes common currency, it will be debated without the fear or entrenched resistance a diktat may evoke and people will make up their own minds. If your idea is a good one, consensus will slowly form and civil organisations may even campaign for its adoption. Usually this does take a vested interest to exist, it must be said, but where an idea is good enough the vested interest is inbuilt.
The best example here is surely the internet. It is simply an idea whose time has come. There is resistance from those who do not trust it or find it unfamiliar, but there is now a generation growing to whom the idea of NOT having it is unthinkable, because it has been a natural part of their lives from the very beginning. They know that yes, there are drawbacks, but there is none of the unease of unfamiliarity or the resistance to change that many of the 40-and-up generations feel towards it.
Some might argue at this point that surely Sir Tim has seen his invention reach fruition in his lifetime and thus that my thesis is wrong, but in truth he has not. The battle for control of the vast information source that is the web has barely begun, not least because almost every govt knows little of it or its capabilities. Right now, it looks like a useful toy but it is far more. The full flowering will simply not occur until most of the world's population is raised to accept it as normal and has the instincts and the knowledge to start using it in ways even Sir Tim may never have imagined. Indeed, I would argue that the internet age has barely taken its first toddling steps upon the world stage.
The Avalanche Effect
The best and most workable method for changing the world can thus be described in this fashion: in your lifetime, you will kick a pebble down a mountain. If you kick it right, you will see it start to move other pebbles and maybe some bigger stones. It'll build momentum. Over time, more stones move and ultimately, long after you are dead, the front of the mountain comes off and reveals a whole new mountain face underneath. If you've done it right, it's a more scenic view. If not, you just created massive problems. So be careful which pebble you kick!